Why India May Struggle to Match Its 61-Medal Haul at CWG 2026

India's Commonwealth Games 2026 campaign begins with expectations far different from those surrounding Birmingham 2022. After collecting 61 medals four years ago, the Indian contingent faces a much tougher challenge in Glasgow because nearly half of the previous edition's sports have been removed from the programme.

The debate isn't centred on India's form or athlete quality. Instead, it stems from the structure of the Games themselves. Glasgow 2026 will feature only 10 sports after Victoria withdrew as host over escalating costs, prompting Glasgow to stage a scaled-down edition using existing venues. The revised programme has eliminated several sports that have traditionally produced a significant share of India's medals, making comparisons with Birmingham difficult.

India finished fourth on the medal table at the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games with 61 medals — 22 gold, 16 silver and 23 bronze. Wrestling, weightlifting, athletics, badminton, boxing and table tennis were among the country's strongest disciplines.

That balance has changed dramatically.

The Glasgow programme excludes wrestling, badminton, hockey, table tennis, cricket, squash, triathlon, beach volleyball and road cycling. Together, those sports contributed a substantial portion of India's Birmingham medal haul. Wrestling alone produced 12 medals, including six gold, while badminton added six medals and table tennis seven, including para events. Hockey also contributed two medals and the women's cricket team claimed silver during the sport's Commonwealth Games return.

With those disciplines removed, India enters Glasgow without several of its most reliable medal opportunities. The reduction reflects the event's streamlined format rather than any decline in India's competitive strength.

The Commonwealth Games faced uncertainty after the Australian state of Victoria withdrew from hosting the 2026 edition, citing sharply rising projected costs. Commonwealth Sport subsequently confirmed Glasgow as the replacement host after an agreement to stage a smaller and financially sustainable event.

Rather than recreating Birmingham's 19-sport programme, organisers opted for a 10-sport schedule using facilities that already existed from Glasgow's successful 2014 Commonwealth Games.

That decision has affected every participating nation. Countries traditionally dominant in sports such as shooting, wrestling or badminton now have fewer medal opportunities, while nations strong in swimming, cycling track or athletics may benefit from the revised programme.

For India, the impact is particularly noticeable because several of its most successful Commonwealth disciplines are no longer available.

Despite the reduced programme, India is still expected to challenge for medals across multiple sports.

Athletics could become the country's biggest contributor. Olympic champion Neeraj Chopra headlines the javelin competition, while India's growing strength in field events offers further opportunities. Long jumper Murali Sreeshankar, distance runner Parul Chaudhary and middle-distance specialist Gulveer Singh are among athletes capable of reaching the podium if selected and fully fit.

Weightlifting remains another dependable source of medals. India has consistently produced strong Commonwealth performances in the sport, with Olympic silver medallist Mirabai Chanu again expected to lead the challenge. Lifters such as Bindyarani Devi, Ajaya Babu and Gyaneshwari Yadav also strengthen India's prospects across different weight categories.

Boxing provides another realistic avenue. Olympic bronze medallist Lovlina Borgohain and world champion Jaismine Lamboria headline a squad that combines international experience with emerging talent. India's depth across several men's and women's weight divisions has repeatedly translated into Commonwealth success.

Judo, lawn bowls and para sport events may also contribute to the overall tally, although those disciplines traditionally yield fewer medals than wrestling or badminton.

A lower medal tally in Glasgow would not necessarily indicate weaker performances from Indian athletes.

The revised programme means there are simply fewer medal events in sports where India has historically excelled. Comparing Glasgow directly with Birmingham therefore risks overlooking the structural changes that define this edition of the Games.

There is historical precedent for host cities influencing the Commonwealth Games programme. Optional sports have varied across editions depending on venue capacity, budgets and local priorities. Glasgow 2026 represents perhaps the clearest example yet of those practical considerations reshaping medal expectations.

India's objective may therefore shift from matching Birmingham's overall tally to maximising opportunities in the sports that remain. Success could be measured less by the headline number and more by conversion rates in athletics, weightlifting and boxing, where realistic podium prospects still exist.

The Games begin with India carrying proven international performers but facing a fundamentally different competitive landscape. The official programme is fixed, and the country's medal ambitions must now adapt to it rather than to comparisons with Birmingham 2022.